Last, last blog for my weekend, I swear. I've found someone who reckons the numbers in the same way as I do. This is the analysis of the complacency in the US and a reasonable prediction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI
The catch-cry is "Case, case, case, cluster, cluster, boom". Pretty much all of his recent videos are pretty scary in the North American and European contexts.
For New Zealand, I believe containment is still possible but requires a good dose of luck, and need to drop any pretence that blocking people of particular passports will prevent an outbreak. There will need to be a more realistic policy. Even though there were loons recommending the closing of borders even at the early stage when I was abroad, it's getting closer to actually weighing up the economic and political pros and cons of extreme methods. Some of the Pacific Islands are being very rational in essentially killing of tourism because they know that even a small outbreak would paralyse their minimal health systems. New Zealand has relatively larger resources but it still wouldn't take too much to bring it down. The one likely case in North Shore hospital has put a whole swathe of staff into 14 day isolation.
It is quite possible we are in a similar situation to the US, where there might already be background spread of covid-19 with mild cases and extreme cases which haven't yet been considered to be coronavirus due to the patients not having had travel histories. Fingers crossed our actual diagnosed cases and the recent suspected cases are the only examples of infection in NZ...
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