Outbreak

There is that certain thing about a virulent, contagious disease that lends itself so neatly to the horror genre. There is the impending fear of infection, the suspicion of others and the things around you, the suspense in the incubation period, the disgust factor of the symptoms and, in the movies, the certainty of death. Such a disease also lends itself well to the media news, where the use of modal verbs can, could, may and might can jack up the street cred of a worse-than-average flu to the potency of the Spanish Flu. I've enjoyed books based on epidemics and watched a fair few movies with that theme, too. And if I'm honest, I am the kind who gets that weird fascination of reading the news reports from outbreaks like Ebola. Now of course I get to live through an epidemic up close in China.

It would be interesting to know how much fear could have nixed the plan to come to China. From yesterday I started to hear people I know biting the bullet and cancelling their flights here. I'd known about the disease for a while before coming. As part of my preparation to come I'd listened to lots of Cantonese radio (SBS in Australia), which between forest fire updates also had the reporting in December of this certain unknown disease that originated in a wet market in the inland city of Wuhan in Hubei province. It was also claimed to be under control and when I left there were no cases of person-to-person transmission. This changed pretty quickly after I arrived as a greater proportion of the news was taken up with reports. There isn't much doubt that information was held under pretty close control to avoid panic. But now, needing to make sure people take it very seriously, the outline of the range and extent of the illness are becoming pretty clear. Majority of provinces have at least one case. Qingyuan, the city where I live, has had its first case.

It struck at the worst possible time, too, just before Chinese New Year when people move en masse back to their hometowns from the cities. If the situation had been handled quickly and smoothly in Wuhan it might have been a different picture. If it had been a city besides Wuhan it might have been a different story. Wuhan, which I have only been to just the once in 2013, is a hub for the high-speed train network. It's also home to a large number of universities for students all over China. Being a super-city for its region with 11 million people, it's also where a huge number of people in the surrounding cities go to work. It's almost go a royal flush – it's just short an international airport to be a real winner in the "not good places for a virus" game of poker.

Feelings on the ground? My family is clearly jumpy. My wife had what was clearly a cold but on Thursday she insisted on going to the hospital. We donned masks as 90% of the other hospital visitors did, a complete change from the past. Afterwards we went to the mall to buy some last bits and pieces for new year, about three-quarters of people were wearing masks. And this is the day before the first case was announced for the city. My nephew has also been sick recently but the dates of the start of his sickness aren't in line with the believed outbreak. But still doubt breeds irrational fears. While people explode festive firecrackers outside to bring in the Year of the Rat.