Sneeze

It's kind of a contradiction to be observing the beginnings of a pandemic in the middle of a long, hot summer. When I started having cold symptoms (again) two days ago it was also a contradiction. In went the thermometer and out popped another normal 36 degree temperature. It was the same when I came back from China. Cold symptoms, mild concern and normal 36 degree temperatures. To most people in my circle it wouldn't be a contradiction for me to be the one with coronavirus, yet even that didn't happen. Sneeze.

Back on Saturday I mentioned the growing worry that it wasn't China that would be the risk to New Zealand. And how things change in 6 days: South Korea went from 200-odd cases to 2000 cases. The world outside of China went from 11 deaths to 67 deaths. Back merely 6 days ago Italy wasn't even listed among the top affected countries with a few traceable infections. Now it's 653 infections and 17 deaths put it at number 3 outside of China. And just 8 days ago, Iran burst onto the scene with a leftfield "two cases/two fatalities" report. Now Iran's death count are second to Hubei's, if listed alike. Italy's and Iran's numbers are wonky though: The fatalities are far above what they should be for the number of cases found. There are only a couple of possibilities:

- The strain of the virus is more lethal there. (Unlikely)

- They are not reporting all cases. (I'm guessing not.)

- The virus is more pervasive than their testing is showing. (Very likely)

Iran's now 27 deaths from 260 cases, for example, presuming an initially unburdened medical system and a similar mortality rate must have at least 1000 extra cases that are undiagnosed, and potentially on the loose. This pervasiveness has led to the astonishing news that the health minister (and the Vice President of the Womens and Family Affairs), officials who you wouldn't expect as first victims of an outbreak, are now famously ill and quarantined. New Zealand may have its first case now courtesy of a traveller who has been through Iran. And you can feel for Iran, it's been sanctioned heavily (and I would say unjustly) so may lack the resources to handle the outbreak. Without external support it may go the way of Hubei. Yesterday the president of Iran has said they are not quarantining cities yet. It worries me that they haven't learned China's lesson.

Italy's 17 deaths already from 653 cases also appears off, especially this early in the piece. For comparison, Henan province has 20 deaths but that has been on the back of 1272 cases and time for the critical cases to slowly but surely be tallied in the deaths column, or into the recovery column. In China, though the case numbers skyrocketed in the initial days it took a long time for those provinces to have reported deaths. (Again, I'm guessing that the reports of deaths are accurate - I have no reason to doubt them outside of Hubei.) 

67 deaths in the world outside of China. Perhaps another count to be aware of. In China outside of Hubei, which had direct impacts from Hubei travellers before the sealing of cities, which has 1.2 billion vulnerable people, have suffered 109 deaths. Yesterday there were 44 deaths in China due to the disease, with 3 outside Hubei. Between noon yesterday and 6pm tonight the rest of the world racked up 14.

Sneeze.