Drowning in Corona

Covid-19 might be an above-average pathogen at this stage for the human species, but the disease is not just one of the body; it's also an economic plague. It was a unique sight to see the Chinese economy screech to a halt. The skies were blue; the roads clear; workers were all home. The flow-on from that is a lag in deliveries out of the world's factory. There is the irony of the production site of many medical equipment and apparel being Hubei grew sharp and grey when almost every country realised that local outbreaks would consume reserves within weeks. New Zealand had plenty of crayfish and beef with no place to send them to. The crays were sent back to the sea. The welcoming gates of our ports slamming shut to Chinese, tourist operators were all at sea, too. And for those education providers, students who were to come after Chinese New Year were blocked from coming. And that's where the pain begins in my small world. But that story has barely begun.

Last Friday was when New Zealand discovered it's long awaited first case in Aotearoa. It was an astonishing run. We should have had a huge exposure to it but strangely nothing happened. On that day, 67 people in the world were known to have perished to the epidemic. Seven days on it's 342. And New Zealand's personal tally arrived at 4 confirmed cases (no deaths). While these 300-400% increase are, well, hmmm, let's not talk about it, at least... well, at least it's still nothing in terms the world population? It's good to sometimes know at this early phase, we can minimise it. 

I should have mentioned in an early blog, that I have that mindset that takes a secret joy in watching the world burn. There is a thrill in numbers rocketing, carnage expanding; and along with that is a certain dissatisfaction when order has been restored. (I believe I'm not alone in this regard; please don't challenge this belief.) Hubei, the once darkest hole in the Coronaverse, had its darkness shrunk down to a single point surrounded by glorious light: There were 126 new cases in Hubei province, of which all 126 were in Wuhan. All other Hubeinese cities enjoyed their first day of unanimous viral pacification. If they weren't still homebound, they should be celebrating without fear in the streets. It is quite possible that these days, the greying darkness of Wuhan has been eclipsed by the abysses of Qom and Daegu.

 

In my previous blog, I related my not-so-novel thoughts on the inverse relationship of early testing and fast action with the death rate, and in the blog before that the thought that the "wonkier" the numbers the more it indicated a lack of testing. China is only solidifying around the 3.4% fatality rate after all the grim accounting through the eventual expiry of the critically ill. There are still lots of people still hanging on in China, but with few cases to fill the beds of the recovered, the statistical certainty is becoming etched in there. Interestingly, the WHO said that 3.4% is the global fatality rate for this disease, and that should be not at the beginning of the outbreak but at the end after the dust has settled. Ergo, no country should really have a rate of 3% or higher before the outbreak is over. If it is, they have either: (a) not tested sufficiently so the total number of cases aren't apparent but the number of deaths are more certain; (b) their health system was overrun so that normally survivable cases died (e.g. Wuhan); (c) their numbers are bogus. I like tables so as of today the official numbers are below:

	Diagnosed cases	Deaths	Fatality rate
S. Korea	6284	43	1%
Italy	3858	148	4%
Iran	3513	107	3%
Japan	1056	12	1%
France	423	7	2%
USA	232	14	6%
Spain	208	3	1%
England	116	1	1%
Switzerland	111	1	1%
Australia	60	2	3%
Thailand	47	1	2%
Iraq	38	2	5%

Italy already has a worse death rate than China and majority of cases have not recovered yet. I'm guessing it is a mixture of (a) and (b). Iran is probably a mixture of (a), (b) and (c). Both of these are clearly out of control. Italy's population is of comparable size to Hubei, which with considerable effort has as of today 67,592 cases and 2931 deaths (4.3%). It could be interesting to see where they end up. 

The funny one in the mix is the USA. They are still early days but clearly have a big case of (a) and possibly a bit of (c), because the political pride of their president has been woven into a mask. The health system isn't close to being overrun, so even if you assume that the 14 deaths are a 2% fatality rate of the actual number of cases, they should have at least 700 cases, which means that 400-500 cases are in the community without knowing that they're spreading a highly contagious virus. 14 could though be an anomaly - majority come from a single rest home. But all countries with significant infections have elderly. Japan, home to the oldest population, has managed to keep their death rate to 1%. 

Iraq's 2 deaths from 28 diagnoses is a bit spooky. With two deaths very early in its reporting, there must have been a significant time between the arrival of the virus and the initial testing. Australia's numbers are too low to worry so far. One of the two deaths was off the Diamond Princess.

I'd like to have a bit of fun with this, if you don't mind the darkness of it, and predict next Friday's rate:

	6-Mar-20
	Diagnosed cases	Deaths	Fatality rate	Diagnosed cases	Deaths	Fatality rate
S. Korea	6284	43	1%	8000	60	1%
Italy	3858	148	4%	7000	300	4%
Iran	3513	107	3%	8000	400	5%
Japan	1056	12	1%	1100	15	1%
France	423	7	2%	600	12	2%
USA	232	14	6%	1500	32	2%
Spain	208	3	1%	400	6	2%
England	116	1	1%	300	7	2%
Switzerland	111	1	1%	200	2	1%
Australia	60	2	3%	100	3	3%
Thailand	47	1	2%	55	1	2%
Iraq	38	2	5%	300	12	4%