Masking the flu (a bit more grey)

Two persistent Corona-topics that come up again and again: comparisons with the flu and evaluations of the efficacy of masks. They are rapidly getting into "that old chestnut" territory but their persistence make them tough nuts to crack.

The flu thing is irritating because of the aversion people have to "grey" I raised in a previous blog. People still want to yanny/laurel Covid-19 to being either the average lurgee or the 1918 "Spanish" Flu. Every time there is an article that minimizes this pandemic I feel the threat rise and more people take it lightly.

But the attitude to face masks is also irksome. It seems a loaded topic and there are experts who come out to downplay their efficacy and discourage their use. It is true that mask use require a little guidance for best use, and you can see lots of people using them unnecessarily, I would say that it is irrational to discourage use if it's an available resource.

I'd like to explain it with some evidence and reasoning. Feel free to dispute it. The first thing is that mask wearing cultures have fewer cases. Early on South Korea, Japan and Singapore all were the secondary epicentres to China. Right now, South Korea has slide down to the 10th most cases, Japan the 27th most cases, Singapore 44th. Of course, this is not to say masks are responsible for the relative improvement, the clear "flattening of the curve" but it coincides. No mask wearing culture is having a hard time with this after they were collectively ambushed by this pathogen.

My second argument is about what's called inoculum, that is the amount of contagion that you take in. Young health workers die of Covid-19 because they don't just have casual contact with the infected, they get it again and again, small and big amounts. They are inoculated with different amounts, and in this situation more means less chance of living through infection. The experts may say that masks still allow viral particles to sneak past the sides. But if you are in the early phases of infection, most of your shed viral particles are not likely to go out to others if you are wearing a mask. If you are sick, you'll definitely have access to masks in a culture that values masks. That means your contacts would have much reduced inoculum and are also less likely to die from their infections. And if you are a healthy person in situations with repeated exposure to possible infected people or in enclosed environments you have less likelihood of breathing in droplets. Infection is not a binary thing. It too happens in degrees and the degree of infection is affected by barriers such as masks.

The focus on hand washing in western countries is noble and there is now a spotlight on the touching of the face by hands. People unfairly pick on the health ministry people who just like us are compelled to scratch, rub and pinch their faces, with their ill luck that they're often filmed doing so while advocating that we all shouldn't. My nose is forever uncomfortable and I know that I have terrible habits in this area. I thought of putting plasters on my fingers to make me aware when I did. It didn't work. You know what stops your subconscious touching of your nose? A mask. Experts point out that you might touch your mask and transfer virus to your hands. True, and that's why masks and handwashing go together.

It's a no-brainer. There has been some conspiratorial perspectives why masks have been discouraged. Firstly, western countries aren't well stocked with masks. If the whole population needed a mask (should be one a day at least, or once every 4 hours if you follow the directions), we would need almost 30-40 million masks a week. By discouraging the public use, the health sector can buy out the available imported stock and secure all the local production. I agree with this but would prefer that there was increased production. Our country had two months' lead time to stockpile and I heard our local production could do 200,000 a day. Still, on the news tonight it showed nurses in South Auckland without masks. You see staff for "essential service" not wearing masks.

Masks may be a cultural thing. Service staff do not want to mask up because it's hardly a welcoming thing to wear. How do you feel when you are welcomed by a person in a mask? Cold and alien. In China, dare I say it, service has no such scruples. But there is a messaging in it, too. Now we too have our daily updates on the TV about the local outbreaks and case numbers. In China, all the officials doing the presenting did it masked. The reporters asked their questions masked. Even Chairman Xi got masked. You could tell immediately that this is a serious thing. Even my in-laws on the farm who themselves would barely think of wearing a mask wore them, not just because their children begged them to but because the leadership showed that it was the thing to do. In China, you could say it might get to the point of virtue-signalling, but you could also argue that it's legitimate hygiene-signalling: I'm safe. I care about your safety. In Guangzhou you couldn't take public transport without one, and it was seen as socially irresponsible not to.

I haven't yet donned a mask in New Zealand because I genuinely have thought that the cases prior to the current week have all been people who travelled in and still at a low incidence. My line was crossed with community transmission. When I go to the supermarket this weekend, it'll be in a mask.